Monday, July 20, 2015

A Trade Of James Shields Would Be Bad For Business

By now, everyone has realized that the San Diego Padres aren’t the team we thought – and perhaps more accurately hoped they would be. After an off-season full of big name acquisitions and risky trades, most fans expected the Padres to make the playoffs and perhaps contend for a title.

Well, on July 20, the Padres are 43-49, seven games out of a playoff spot. The team isn’t dead yet, but the plug could be pulled any day. When a team is out of contention, the organization shifts course, trades expiring contracts, and further prepares the organization for next season.

The San Diego Padres have plenty of veterans on expiring deals. Ian Kennedy, Joaquin Benoit, (assuming his option isn’t picked up) Will Venable and Justin Upton among others. Now might be the best time to trade these players for assets that could benefit the club in 2016 in beyond.

James Shields - Getty Images
James Shields is one of those players who is being dangled in trade talks. Shields may not be an ace like a Johnny Cueto or a Cole Hamels, but he is a durable veteran who has pitched in the World Series. He instantly makes any rotation in the league better. Surely, he is a player that the Padres could shop, in hopes of pressing the restart button and collecting young, controllable talent. Trading Shields, from a business standpoint, makes a lot of sense. However, the Padres would lose credibility with a Shields trade. Why? The answer is simple.

James Shields signed a four-year, $75 million deal with San Diego in February – the largest contract in the history of the organization. Shields, 33, has been one of the game’s most consistent pitchers over the last five years. Shields has pitched at least 200 innings in eight straight seasons, typically with an ERA in the mid 3’s. Shields was supposed to be the durable workhorse that the team lacked.
However, Shields has had a strange 2015, to say the least. On the surface, Shields has still been pretty good. With Friday night’s outing, Shields is sitting at 8-3, with a 3.91 ERA in 121.2 innings. His numbers are quite solid, but they do not narrate the tale of a staff ace. Shields’ stuff looks to be better than ever – he is averaging a career-high 10.11 k’s per nine innings. He is throwing his curve more than ever, which seems to be keeping hitters off-balance.

While the strikeouts are up, so are the walks. Shields is walking batters are nearly double the rate he was last year. In 2014 with Kansas City, Shields walked 44 batters in 227 innings. This season, Shields has already issued 40 free passes in 116 innings. Shields’ WHIP has naturally risen a bit, but it is still passable at 1.29.

The strangest stat for Shields in 2015 is his new-found propensity in allowing home runs. Shields has allowed 20 homers this season – half of them coming in the supposed pitcher’s haven known as Petco Park. Shields has pitched well overall at Petco Park – he has pitched to a 2.68 ERA in nine outings, but the homers have been a nemesis all year. Shields’ track record dictates that it is more of an aberration then an actual trend.

Shields brings a lot of accountability and leadership to a clubhouse that has seemed to be in dire need of it. He’s a leader, and personally, I feel that his presence on the team cannot be discounted. The Padres are simply a better team with Shields in the fold.

While fans know what Shields brings to the team on the diamond, his contract could be viewed as a hindrance in the near future. Shields is making just $10 million this year, however next year Shields’ contract jumps to a massive haul of $21 million. Shields could potentially opt out of his deal after 2016. If he chooses not to, Shields is owed $21 million in 2017 and 2018. Shields also has a club option for $16 million in 2019, with a $2 million option.  San Diego could owe Shields as much as $79 million after this season.

Yes, the Shields contract gets bloated, but that is the price of dipping into the free agent pitching pool. A team will always overpay for a dependable and above-average arm. Shields’ contract could have commanded more money on the open market, and his contract could end up being a good value over the duration of the deal.

In addition to everything that I have mentioned, trading Shields just seems like a bad business move that could make the Padres lose credibility. The perception around baseball has been that the Padres a perennial loser – a team that doesn’t take the steps necessary to build a consistent winner. The organization at least showed the financial muscle to make moves with the high revenue teams, although obviously the moves did not pan out as anticipated. The result on the field has been immensely disappointing, but most fans are still encouraged by an ownership group that has shown they want to win. It remains to be seen if the Padres attempt to lure more big names in the free agent market in the future, but a trade of Shields, in my opinion, will lead to loss of credibility.

Most big-time free agents see the opportunity to cash in when they make a move to sign a multi-year deal with the organization of their choice. It represents stability for themselves and for their families. Most players do not anticipate being traded five months into a four-year contract.

Shields lives in San Diego, and I am sure being able to sleep in his own bed was a determining factor (aside from the cash) on his decision to sign with the Padres. If San Diego chooses to pursue another big-time player, a trade of Shields will surely be brought up by competing organizations, as well as agents. It is a move removes credibility from a mediocre in dire need of it.

In addition to the potential personnel ramifications, the Padres also forfeited the #13 overall pick in June’s draft. The Padres gutted their farm system in the off-season, and the loss of the first rounder certainly doesn’t help. At the time the Padres acquired Shields, I, like most fans believed that the potential of four years of Shields outweighed whatever player the Padres could have drafted. Besides, it isn’t like the Padres have had much, if any success drafting players in the first round. Shields is a proven commodity in the game.

When the calendar strikes July 31st, I hope that James Shields is in a Padres uniform. Industry experts think he will be elsewhere. The Padres can build with James Shields, and will be better for it. 

Thursday, April 9, 2015

2015 Fort Wayne Tincaps Season Preview

The Fort Wayne Tincaps, the Midwest League affiliate of the San Diego Padres, have announced their opening day roster for the 2015 season. The team will open up with 10 players who suited up for the team last year. The roster announcement was released by the organization, via Twitter.
Last season the Tincaps went 63-76, but made the playoffs for the seventh straight year, despite the losing record. Fort Wayne will open up with 13 pitchers, and 12 position players. Here is a look at the roster:
Coaching staff:  Manager Francisco Morales (1st year with team), hitting coach Lance Burkhart, pitching coach Bert Hooton

Pitchers: LHP Taylor Aikenhead, LHP Payton Baskette, RHP Jimmy Brasoban. LHP Taylor Cox, LHP Thomas Dorminy, RHP Dinelson Lamet, RHP Walker Lockett, RHP Seth Lucio, LHP Kyle McGrath, RHP Ernesto Montas, RHP Wilson Santos, RHP Bryan Verbitsky, RHP T.J. Weir
Analysis: Padres beat writer Corey Brock reported that the Tincaps rotation will feature Thomas Dorminy, Taylor Cox, Ernesto Montas and Walker Lockett. Dinelson Lamet and Taylor Aikenhead will piggyback each other.

None of the pitchers on the roster rank in the Padres top-30 prospects, but many of the young arms have shown promise in their careers.

Thomas Dorminy, 22, pitched to a 3.72 ERA in Eugene last season in his pro debut. Payton Baskette made 20 appearances (12 starts) last season for the Tincaps, and pitched to a 5.29 ERA. Dinelson Lamet will make his stateside debut for Fort Wayne. The 22-year-old pitched briefly with the Padres Dominican Summer League affiliate in 2014.

Bryan Verbitsky is the highest draft pick on the Tincaps staff. He was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2013 draft, out of Hofstra University. He spent most of last season in short-season ball, where he posted a 1.67 ERA in 23 games for the Eugene Emeralds.
Catchers: Miguel Del Castillo, Jose Ruiz

Analysis: Del Castillo, 23, has been in the Padres organization since 2009, since being signed out of the Dominican Republic. Del Castillo has played in 630 games in the minors, and has a career slash line of .230/.319/.294, with two home runs.
Ruiz, 20, hails from Venezuela. Last season he played in Eugene and hit just .191 in 55 games.
Infielders: 3B Felipe Blanco, SS Franchy Cordero, 1B Duanel Jones, 1B Trae Santos, SS Josh VanMeter

Analysis: This group features some intriguing names, headlined by Cordero. Cordero is the #8 ranked prospect in the Padres system, according to
Cordero, 20, started with Fort Wayne last season, and got off to a miserable start. He just .188 in 22 games, in addition to making 18 errors, good for a .793 fielding percentage. Cordero played much better after a demotion to Eugene, where he posted a .279/.329/.458 slash line, with nine homers in 61 games.

Jones, 21, has actually spent the last two seasons at High-A Lake Elsinore. He played in 113 games for Fort Wayne way back in 2012. Jones hit .234 with 10 homers last season.

VanMeter, 20, was with Fort Wayne last season. He was the Padres’ 5th round pick in the 2013 draft, and ranks as the Padres’ 30th best prospect, according to He hit .254 in 116 games last season.

Outfielders: Henry Charles, Michael Gettys, Edwin Moreno, Franmil Reyes, Nick Torres.
Gettys is the headlining name in this group, although Franmil Reyes is an intriguing name as well.
Gettys, the 6th best prospect in the Padres’ system, according to, will be making his full season debut. Gettys, 19, was the Padres second round pick in last year’s draft. Gettys hit .310 in his professional debut.

Franmil Reyes, 19, is the one of the largest humans in the Padres farm system. At 6’5 and 240lbs, he certainly packs power potential. He spent all of last year in Fort Wayne and hit 10 home runs, certainly holding his own against players much older than him. He also could see some playing time at first base.

Nick Torres, 21, was the Padres’ 4th round pick last year. He hit .253 with Eugene in his professional debut.

Monday, April 6, 2015

San Diego Padres 2015 Season Preview and Prediction

Optimism is at an all-time high in San Diego, as the hometown Padres begin their 2015 season. A record crowd of 23,472 attended Fanfest this past weekend to “meet” this year’s squad. There has not been a buzz this resounding in San Diego since the magical season of 1998, when San Diego won the pennant.
San Diego has been the most talked about team this off-season in the blogosphere, in newspapers and on MLB Network. The Padres are a team that has national intrigue and on paper, they should be pretty darn good. Here is how the Padres will stack up in 2015:

Starting Pitching: Last season, the Padres finished 2nd in the National League with a 3.27 ERA and their adjusted ballpark ERA of 103 finished 4th. Some of the pitching success can be attributed to spacious Petco Park, however, the talent that San Diego’s staff cannot be undervalued.

As good as the Padres staff was last year, the pitching staff is better and more complete than it was in 2014.
San Diego dipped their toes into the free agent water, as they signed former Rays and Royals ace James Shields to a four-year, $75 million contract to become the new ace. Last season Shields went 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA in 226 innings. He led the Royals to their first playoff appearance since 1985. Shields brings durability and a veteran presence at the top of San Diego’s rotation.

From there, the Padres will go with Tyson Ross as their #2 starter. Last season, Ross was the Padres’ best pitcher, as he made his first All-Star appearance. Ross finished the year with a 13-14 record, but with a 2.81 ERA. Ross made 31 starts in his first full season as a starter in San Diego, and will surely look to build on his success in 2015.

Last year’s opening day starter, Andrew Cashner, is penciled in at the third spot in the rotation. The key for Cashner will be health; Cashner started just 19 games last season, missing time with elbow and shoulder injuries. When healthy, Cashner can be a dominant starter. Last season, Cashner pitched to a 2.55 ERA in 123.1 innings.

The fourth spot in the rotation will be occupied by Ian Kennedy, a man who led San Diego in strikeouts and innings last season. Kennedy pitched to a solid 3.63 ERA and struck out 207 batters. Kennedy is a free agent after the 2015 season, and a big year will put him in line for a huge contract.
Brandon Morrow, a free agent signing from Toronto will be the fifth starter to begin 2015. Morrow had a 2.91 ERA for Toronto in 2012, but injuries have limited Morrow to a combined 16 starts the last two seasons. He throws hard, and if healthy, will be an excellent fifth starter.

Bullpen: San Diego already had a deep bullpen before pulling the trigger on a blockbuster trade on Easter Sunday. The Padres acquired Craig Kimbrel, arguably the game’s best closer from Atlanta, in exchange for Cameron MaybinCarlos Quentin, top pitching prospect Matt Wisler, the 41st pick in the 2015 draft and minor league outfielder Jordan Paroubeck. San Diego also received outfielder Melvin Upton Jr. in the deal.
Kimbrel is just 26, and has led the National League in saves the last four seasons. The four-time All-Star is also looking to become the first closer in baseball history to save 40 games in five consecutive seasons. Kimbrel gives San Diego the best bullpen in the National League.

The addition of Kimbrel bumps Joaquin Benoit back to a setup role. There have been concerns about Benoit’s velocity this spring, but even at the age of 37, he is still an elite setup man. Last season Benoit had a 1.49 ERA with 11 saves. He should man the 8th inning.

From there, San Diego will have Dale ThayerNick VincentShawn Kelley and lefty Frank Garces in the middle innings. Vincent threw well after a disabled list stint and Thayer and Kelley are veterans who can miss bats. Garces, who made his big league debut last season, becomes the left-handed specialist after the trade of Alex Torres.

Odrisamer Despaigne will be the longman to start the year, but he could transition to the rotation if a Padres starter has an injury. Despaigne threw well last year and should thrive in the swingman role.
In the minors, the Padres will have Brandon Maurer and Kevin Quackenbush, two solid relievers who would make most bullpens. To say that the Padres have depth in the bullpen is an understatement.

Lineup: San Diego’s offensive struggles were well-documented last season. The swinging (and often missing) Friars finished last in the National League in runs (535), batting average (.226), on-base percentage (.292), and slugging percentage (.342). To say the Padres offensive was bad is an understatement: it was pathetic.
Insert A.J. Preller, San Diego’s new “Rockstar GM.” Preller started the off-season by acquiring Matt Kemp from the Los Angeles Dodgers. From there, he added Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks. On paper, the Padres look like a powerful squad.

The plan is to have new centerfielder Wil Myers to lead off. Myers possesses tremendous power from the right side, although Myers had a .294 on-base percentage last year. Myers could be an intriguing fit in the leadoff hole if he can replicate the success of his rookie season.

Kemp and Upton give the Padres one of the best 1-2 power punches in the National League. Both players possess the ability to hit 30 homers. Upton drove in 102 runs last season and Kemp had a torrid second half. Both players will need to produce for San Diego to improve.

The rest of the lineup will be dependent on players coming back from injuries and ineffectiveness. Wil Middlebrooks had an excellent spring, but has looked lost the last two seasons. Jedd Gyorko had one of the worst offensive seasons in recent memory in 2014. He did hit 23 homers in his rookie season, so the promise remains. First baseman Yonder Alonso is in a put-up or shut-up season. Another injury or poor start could lead to Tommy Medica or even Yangervis Solarte stealing playing time for him.

Derek Norris cooled off after a hot start in Oakland last season, but he can still be a solid contributor behind the dish. Alexi Amarista and Clint Barmes will share the shortstop job to start 2015. Neither player brings much to the table in the way of offensive upside.

Bench: The Padres will open the season with a bench of infielder/outfielder Alexi Amarista, infielder Cory Spangenberg, infielder Yangervis Solarte, outfielder Will Venable and backup catcher Wil Nieves. Solarte was solid for the Padres a year ago and Amarista is a fine utility player who played tremendously well at shortstop down the stretch.

Venable is an excellent fourth outfielder, as he is left-handed, runs well and possesses power and the ability to play all three outfield positions. Spangenberg can play all over the field and hit well last season in a brief cameo. He will likely go back to Triple-A when Melvin Upton Jr. is activated from the disabled list.
Nieves will be the backup for now, but it would not be a surprise for the Padres to pursue another catcher outside of the organization. Nieves is 37 and has no offensive upside. His value will come in the way of veteran leadership and his handling of the pitching staff.

Final outlook: The Padres are vastly improved, but remain flawed. The team needs bounce-back years from several players and does not have a true leadoff hitter. The club is also expecting Wil Myers to play regularly in center field; something he has never done in the big leagues. The everyday lineup is also very heavily right-handed, although the bench will feature as many as four left-handed hitters.

That being said, San Diego has the deepest 12-man pitching staff in the National League. Top to bottom, there is no deeper staff. The offense should be improved as well. This year could be very fun in San Diego.
Prediction: 91-71, second in the NL West. Wild Card winner

Monday, February 9, 2015

Padres Plan Pursuit Of Yoan Moncada

After reeling in James Shields Sunday night, the Padres have not ended their pursuit of high-priced talent. The San Diego Padres have begun to pursue talented Cuban amateur infielder Yoan Moncada, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports. The Padres had a private workout set for Monday afternoon with the 19-year-old budding superstar.

Moncada is one of the most exciting prospects to ever hit the international market. He has a rare combination of youth, speed and power. While Moncada might not be big league ready after signing, many experts would rank him among the most talented prospects in the game.

The Padres have traded 12 players from their farm system this off-season and they also forfeited their 1st rounder (13th overall) when they signed James Shields, so the Padres have extra incentive to add Moncada. The bidding is sure to get expensive, with many predicting Moncada could receive as much as a $40 million bonus.

Ben Badler of Baseball America compared Moncada to Yasiel Puig and Robinson Cano. He has plus-speed, plus power and is expected to be solid defensively, although many scouts don’t believe he can handle shortstop. A move to 2nd base or the outfield might be in the future. He is a switch-hitter and has an above-average arm.

San Diego will have to be ultra-aggressive in their pursuit of the talented Cuban. The Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees are all interested in Moncada’s services. The bidding could ultimately involve as many as a dozen teams.

It is hard to say who the preliminary ‘favorite’ is to sign Moncada, but the Padres have proven that they are not shy about spending money. However, they will have to outbid several of baseball’s biggest spenders to land Moncada. 

Sunday, February 8, 2015

BREAKING: Padres Sign James Shields

The San Diego Padres have made their splashiest acquisition of a busy off-season, as they have agreed to terms with free agent pitcher James Shields. The news was reported by Chris Cotilo of MLB Daily Dish. The deal is pending a physical.

While the monetary terms have not been finalized, the deal is expected to worth at least $72 million. The deal is also expected to include a fifth-year option.

Shields, 33, is coming off of a very successful 2014 campaign with the American League champion Kansas City Royals. He started 34 games for Kansas City and posted a 14-8 record, with a 3.21 ERA in 227 innings. Shields is one of baseball’s most consistent workhorses, as he has thrown 200 innings or more every season since 2007. Shields has also started at least 33 games in every season since 2008.

The Padres focused on fixing a punchless lineup this off-season, but the Shields signing is the first big splash on the pitching side. The Friars signed Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson to incentive-laden deals, but the Shields addition gives San Diego one of the most consistent starters in the game.

The acquisition of Shields will also push the Padres payroll past $100 million for the first time in franchise history. Shields will headline a talented rotation that already includes All-Star Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy. Suffice to say, San Diego will be a team to watch in 2015.